Afghanistan: Political Repercussions of American Withdrawal

By T.S. Khanna, September 20, 2021,

Foundation for Better Government.

 

Recent withdrawal of America from Afghanistan has opened opportunities for Pakistan and China to expand their power and jurisdiction.  The present ferment in world politics is likely to lead to a “Battle of Armageddon”, which could be a replay of historic Mahabharata.  In such a war, the greatest losers will be Pakistan and India and the biggest beneficiary will be China.

 

It seems that Pakistan is strategizing with the Taliban and China to take over Kashmir by force.  China, as their ally, is likely to help Pakistan and expand its power in the region as a first step toward achieving its ultimate goal of annexing Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal, Tibet, Ladakh, Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan.  Soon after achieving this goal, the next step will be to eliminate religions in this region.  Living evidence of Uighur refugees has proven that China has zero tolerance for the Islam (Muslim religion).  Communists believe that religions obstruct progress and provide a shelter for the worst of humanity.

 

History informs us that Afghanistan has been a burial ground of many empires and an unruly country of many War Lords.  Its population of about 37 million people is a beehive of numerous political factions with no political ideology or sustained philosophy.  Anything they like to do is justified and sanctified by their own interpretation of their religion.  The Taliban, Pashtun majority, are intolerant of other minorities, especially the largest minority of Tajiks-Uzbeks mostly inhabiting the Northern region of Afghanistan. 

 

Tajiks and Uzbeks are not fundamentalist Muslims, and are culturally apart from the Taliban.  They do not believe they can survive under the Taliban and would prefer to make the northern region of Afghanistan as a separate country.  Panjshir, one of the thirty-four provinces, with a Tajik majority in the population of 173,000, located north of Kabul, is now the battleground against the Taliban. 

 

Russia is sympathetic to the cause of Tajiks-Uzbeks.  It is likely to get actively and openly involved in defending Panjshir and other northern provinces as a counter force to Pakistan’s help to the Taliban in drone bombarding of Panjshir. America and its allies, already exhausted, are in no mood to get involved again, at this stage.

 

If a country wants to avert war, it must prepare for it.  As a first step, India must establish a strict border control.  Second, keep a close watch on the Khyber Pass, from where most of the past invaders of India came thru. Third, raise military power to a new level by using the state-of-the-art technology, and intelligence techniques.  There is no room for corrupt, inefficient, or inept employees in Government of India or in the Indian Military.

 

To maintain peace in this region, extensive cooperative efforts are called for on the part of America and its allies as well as Russia and its allies.